Tuesday, January 8, 2008

New Hampshire Predictions

1. McCain
2. Willard
3. Giuliani
4. Paul
5. Huckabee
6. Thompson

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Is there any other Democrats still in the race?

I think a similar type of scenario will play out in both the Republican and Democratic primaries. The front runners (Willard and Hillary) were stung hard in Iowa and will lose in New Hampshire.

On the Republican side, Willard went from front runner in Iowa to losing badly against a guy with no money and a tiny organization. It's tough to pull out of that especially considering McCain's strength in New Hampshire. With that said, he may still take it if Obama pulls enough independents over to vote on the D side then Willard can win. That analysis goes against my belief about independents (the vast majority of them are partisans who enjoy the distinction of independence), but the landscape in New Hampshire is rapidly shifting left. In recent history it has been somewhat of a swing state but in the coming years it will become solidly blue (thanks W). Advantage: McCain. My Paul prediction this time may be wishful thinking (slightly) but I have a hard time seeing the non-existent evangelical vote in New Hampshire showing up to pull Huckabee over Paul. This may be a bad prediction because the dead have turned out in many past elections so don't discount them.

On the Democratic side, it is not momentum that will kill Hillary. She can withstand an onslaught. The problem is the exit polls from Iowa. Obama won the female vote. If Hillary, the first real chance for a woman to be President of the United States ever, can't win the female vote then she is done. Second, voters seemed to favor change over experience. Although that only captures the sentiment of Democratic voters in Iowa, it is probably not much different from New Hampshire. If the sentiment is even remotely similar, then it is too late for her to change the entire rational for her candidacy.

Overall Picture:
The winners of New Hampshire on both sides will go on to take their parties nomination. To me, this is much clearer on the Republican side. If McCain wins New Hampshire, he will win Michigan next (He and Willard are close in the polls there) which will provide the necessary boost for South Carolina. This will kill Rudy for good and finish Thompson and Huckabee. Replace the name McCain with Willard and the same analysis holds true (especially considering Willard will probably also win Nevada). It isn't as clear on the Democratic side, but I can't see how Hillary can take South Carolina, a state with a black Democratic base, away from a surging black man. Sounds simplistic, but such is life. If she loses all of the early states then she will be done. Her money and organization will mean nothing on February 5th because Obama has tons of money himself.

Note: Considering I F-ed up the Iowa predictions these thoughts may be useful inverse.

No comments: