Thursday, January 3, 2008

Iowa Predictions

I have been away for the holidays but I must put in my picks before its too late.

Republican:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul
4. McCain
5. Thompson
6. Rudy who?

Democrat:
1. Hilary
2. Obama
3. Edwards

Rational:
Having Ron Paul in the third spot is more than wishful thinking. In multiple polls he has double digit support among likely caucus goers in Iowa. A double digit number for Ron Paul is a much larger statement than any of the other candidates. If you say your for Ron Paul your not saying it because you kinda-sorta like him. You say it because you are solidly in his corner. That isn't true of the others.

On the Democratic side I am predicting Hillary because the candidates who do not have enough caucus supporters at any given polling station will lose them to the front runner: Hillary. I thought twice about predicting this because Kucinich has instructed his supporters to support Obama when they are outnumbered, but the remainder should go to Hillary.

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