Presidential race

A column by Christopher Cooper in the Wall Street Journal shows why this year’s presidential race may change presidential politics forever. Many people have made similar grand pronouncements about this year’s election but most are false. Contrary to popular belief this presidential election is no more important than any other year. Politicians attempt to fire up their respective bases by explaining how, unlike past years, this year is the most important ever. “If the other guy gets in we’re all in trouble”. Both the Kerry and Bush campaigns were very good at explaining how the other guy would be a disaster.

The real reason why this year will change everything is because of the shifted primary schedule. While we have all heard about states moving their primaries closer to Iowa and New Hampshire (Nevada has officially moved before New Hampshire while Florida has officially moved to Jan. 29). Pundits have severely understated the practical effect of this movement. Institutional candidates with large war chests will now have an enormous advantage.

How big is this change? States moving up, including Florida and California, allow for early voting. In a heavily contested election, such as this year, voters will no doubt flock to the polls early. Not only do these states allow for early voting, they also encourage it. California has a permanent absentee-voter program which allows voters the choice to have a ballot automatically sent to them in the mail. “In the 2006 primary, 2.4 million California voters, or 47%, cast mail ballots”. That is a lot of votes. The ENTIRE COMBINED POPULATION (according to the 2006 census estimate) of Iowa Nevada and New Hampshire is 6.7 million.